Rolex Greys Pressuring David Khalil For Exposing Inflated Grey Pricing

[watchtabs]

Yea too long

[Son Goku]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Just fact-checked you.

Bob’s has ZERO 116500s from 2020 or 2021. All are pre-owned and several years old. Where are all the new ones, Mr. Bob?

DavidSW - Only ONE 116500 and it's from 2020. Where are all the new ones with box and papers and fresh warranty cards? Sure, he'll get a few a month maybe. No denying that.

TPG - One 116500 from 2020 and two from 2021 — as the entire community now knows the slim margins with which he operates after paying through the nose to get new pieces.

But remember the original contention: 50-75% of new Rolexes are going to grey.

Absolute hogwash! I think your research actually supports my counter argument that the overwhelming majority of new Rolexes go direct to end-users who actually keep them.

My point was on the general availability of watches as someone pointed out that it’s highly unlikely most watches on Chrono24 are in stock. Nowhere did I say they had to be new.

But again I raise the question why can’t most watches be in stock on C24? Because a couple forum members at some point in time contacted a dealer and they didn’t have the watch? Yeah ok.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Son Goku

But again I raise the question why can’t most watches be in stock on C24? Because a couple forum members at some point in time contacted a dealer and they didn’t have the watch? Yeah ok.

It’s a lead generation marketplace with a bunch of fake, phony, and duplicate listings.

Are some in stock? Sure. Does it prove greys control 75% of fresh new Rolex stock? No, it certainly does not.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol, I wonder how many debating this here are gray dealers!!!!


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Lols, question of the day, that or have some vested interest.

Originally Posted by Ruddiger

Howdy,

Everything I am posting below is my personal opinion. Nothing more.

In my opinion, and to all of those people who think this is the “new normal” and believe watches are an investment, be warned: this IS a pyramid scheme.

Someone, likely you, is going to get burned and burned bad when the bubble pops. To be clear: bubbles ALWAYS pop. Furthermore, many of these new greys, including some actively promoting themselves on YouTube, may not be who or what you think they are. The same may go for the products they sell.

Combine the advancements in fakes and Frankensteins, with greed, desperation, naïveté and arrogance and you have a recipe for a disaster in the making (it’s likely already occurring in my opinion).

In my opinion this is all completely unsustainable, and as the clock runs out things are going to get pretty shady. Big money attracts big grifters, and the amount of money involved in this current bubble is an open invitation to swindlers.

Mark my words, this will end very badly for many people. As the ship sinks, and desperation sets in for those people who are heavily leveraged and saddled with grossly overpriced inventory, people may find the watches they purchase are not even authentic. Desperation and fraud often go hand in hand. If the FBI and IRS aren’t already watching some of these people I would be absolutely shocked.

All of this is my personal opinion so please give it the weight it deserves.

Take care,

Ruddiger

Great post and while I agree in general, I don't think the mechanical watch industry is at risk to such a high level but what you are saying is definitely a reality to a certain percentage. Looking at how the swiss watch industry was affected by the pandemic as much as an eighteen wheeler is affected by a mosquito hitting the wind shield. But I agree, that what we have is not sustainable in the long term.
Selling watches second hand cannot be a new sustainable career field and the swiss watch industry will not benefit by people and dealers aggressively buying up all product just to resell at inflated prices.

On side note I never thought I'd see the day where an OP or "normal" Rolex Explorer is selling for the msrp price of a Daytona, but to expect a day where ss model Daytonas are $100k plus and Submariners are $80k, ss APs and Pateks selling for six figures, basically where everything is almost six is a disaster. I'm overexagerating of course but the bottom line is that the swiss watch industry isn't supported by the enthusiast, collectors, and investors, it's supported by the average buyer and if the average buyer can't get it because the stock is essentially pre-sold to the reseller market, it will hurt them in the long run in many ways.

Apple watch sales decimate the whole swiss watch industry in sales not because the buyers are niche enthusiast apple obsessed zombie fans....its because every day regular people are able to buy it. I understand the difference in price point, and there are many variables, Porsche isn't affected by the price gouging of it's 911s and it's price point and sales isn't the same as a Toyota Corolla.

Originally Posted by minute_man

Hey Paul,

There are filters used to narrow down the search.

"Readily available" or available now (or whatever) is one of them. Take it with a grain of salt, of course. I thought proper to include this number as compared to the total listings.

Also as one can see, the overhelming majority of listings is by "professional dealers". Not private individuals. That's what they claim to be, at least...

And surely there are grey website offerings also listed on C24 but chances are there could be several others not listed on the particular platform at all.

Bottom line is, with some 250 116500's available on C24 alone, they hardly qualify as rare and exclusive pieces. They're only scarce at ADs', that's all. And this is just ONE reference we're talking about here...I rest my case.

I completely agree but what I can say is that if production of Daytonas were to be 250 or lets say double at 500, that is quite limited. Consider the Ed White at 2000, which is difficult to get or any other LE Speedy at similar numbers. How about when Panerai announce an LE of 500 pieces....they disappear quickly.
I wouldn't say Daytonas are by any means rare but at those production numbers coupled by aggressive whales buying up stock, that leaves very very little allocation for regular people. With about 340 ADs worldwide and most getting about three per year, some only one, we don't know for sure but Daytonas aren't plentiful and they never will be.

Originally Posted by vh2k

Absolute hogwash! I think your research actually supports my counter argument that the overwhelming majority of new Rolexes go direct to end-users who actually keep them.

To end users many of who turn right around and sell it, especially at present. Why not, add another $10k or so and turn a $25-28k(your Daytona msrp plus 10-15k) all in buy into a precious metal watch or simply double your investment immediately which is what seems the overwhelming theme today, "investment potential", the Daytona offers it immediately.
Real sincere wis have a very small opportunity of ownership at retail and normal people who aspire to own one have zero chance, unless they get into the games or discover grey market sales and are willing to stomach the price.

[Hollie_Rollie]

My favorite part is in the latest grey market video on TPG, Marco sales the kid a 37k panda Daytona and goes “bro the value will never go down bro”


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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

My favorite part is in the latest grey market video on TPG, Marco sales the kid a 37k panda Daytona and goes “bro the value will never go down bro”


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I heard that when I bought a house in Florida in 2004.

It's different this time. I'm sure of it. Right? Haha

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Just fact-checked you.

Bob’s has ZERO 116500s from 2020 or 2021. All are pre-owned and several years old. Where are all the new ones, Mr. Bob?

DavidSW - Only ONE 116500 and it's from 2020. Where are all the new ones with box and papers and fresh warranty cards? Sure, he'll get a few a month maybe. No denying that.

TPG - One 116500 from 2020 and two from 2021 — as the entire community now knows the slim margins with which he operates after paying through the nose to get new pieces. He bought a Pepsi from a seller for $20,300. How much will he add on top? $1,200?

But remember the original contention: 50-75% of new Rolexes are going to grey.

Absolute hogwash! I think your research actually supports my counter argument that the overwhelming majority of new Rolexes go direct to end-users who actually keep them.

I don't think anyone really knows what percentage goes grey/end-user but I think its safe to say that greys do take enough of a chunk to disrupt the market. For all we know David or other greys are sitting on a dozen Daytona's. Feeding the market, etc..

Furthermore, as we know some AD's require a minimum annual spend of six figures to be able to secure hot pieces. Well larger grey dealers are obviously capable of this, year after year after year, hence they become the VIP's and jump in line ahead of the end-user.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

I don't think anyone really knows what percentage goes grey/end-user but I think its safe to say that greys do take enough of a chunk to disrupt the market. For all we know David or other greys are sitting on a dozen Daytona's. Feeding the market, etc..

Furthermore, as we know some AD's require a minimum annual spend of six figures to be able to secure hot pieces. Well larger grey dealers are obviously capable of this, year after year after year, hence they become the VIP's and jump in line ahead of the end-user.

For this model it is 24% to 30% below ask paid depending on size of grey. This is based on quotes received from 4 dealers while selling my 116500 white last month.

I was able to do a private deal with someone I've traded with before for a few thousand more.

[Ruddiger]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

My favorite part is in the latest grey market video on TPG, Marco sales the kid a 37k panda Daytona and goes “bro the value will never go down bro”


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Howdy,

In my opinion, anybody who would give those two clowns $37,000 has to have their head examined.

One of them is a two-time ex-con and the other one openly lied through his teeth while grossly misrepresenting the long term value of a product to some sucker who is ultimately going to lose his @ss.

Character counts and at some point you have to eventually look in the mirror. When you lie with dogs you get fleas.

Take care,

Ruddiger

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

I don't think anyone really knows what percentage goes grey/end-user but I think its safe to say that greys do take enough of a chunk to disrupt the market. For all we know David or other greys are sitting on a dozen Daytona's. Feeding the market, etc..

Furthermore, as we know some AD's require a minimum annual spend of six figures to be able to secure hot pieces. Well larger grey dealers are obviously capable of this, year after year after year, hence they become the VIP's and jump in line ahead of the end-user.

David's model is to sell as many watches as he can as quicky as he can. turnover is the game. any dealer shelling out otherwise is either a bad businessman or lying to induce someone to buy.

there is a reason that TPG has a collection. it is to push others to buy multiple watches from him.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Ruddiger

Howdy,

In my opinion, anybody who would give those two clowns $37,000 has to have their head examined.

One of them is a two-time ex-con and the other one openly lied through his teeth while grossly misrepresenting the long term value of a product to some sucker who is ultimately going to lose his @ss.

Character counts and at some point you have to eventually look in the mirror. When you lie with dogs you get fleas.

Take care,

Ruddiger

I was with you on the first part but on your second point- I’m not trying to character assassinate anyone.

It’s the conviction with which they sell their watches that gives me a chuckle. “It’s only going up it’ll never go down” “this platinum Daytona will be discontinued” etc etc. I’ve posted before, I always wondered who paid those outrageously ridiculous prices for the hulks and I can finally put a face to the buyers. Guy bought a 21k used hulk could’ve had a BNIB in 2015 for 7.5k. But hey, it’ll never go down and he paid in Bitcoin so probably cost him whatever his initial investment was.


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[thefollandgnat]

Originally Posted by turkeysub93

I cannot wrap my head around the fact that people make watch videos on youtube as a career...

Yes. And I cannot wrap my head around the fact that there are apparently people who type stuff about watches on computers and share these thoughts with other people they've never even met. I mean, get some friends, or at least a life!

[wiem0014]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

My favorite part is in the latest grey market video on TPG, Marco sales the kid a 37k panda Daytona and goes “bro the value will never go down bro”


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Keep in mind this occurred at a BTC conference full of people who think the chances of BTC ever hitting $0 are nil. It was a perfect match of two markets that are likely over inflated at the moment but will appreciate if held long term.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by EEpro

For this model it is 24% to 30% below ask paid depending on size of grey. This is based on quotes received from 4 dealers while selling my 116500 white last month.

I was able to do a private deal with someone I've traded with before for a few thousand more.

Thank you for sharing.
It’s a cartel. 30% bid-offer is ridiculous on the hottest, most wanted Rolex in the world. Really no different than DeBeers.

Grey bid: $25k
Private party: $28k
Grey offer: $35k

If people knew these greys had 40% margins maybe they’d think twice instead of just thinking $35k is the going rate. I guess someone has to make the payments on the Ferraris and Lambos these guy ride around in.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Thank you for sharing.
It’s a cartel. 30% bid-offer is ridiculous on the hottest, most wanted Rolex in the world. Really no different than DeBeers.

Grey bid: $25k
Private party: $28k
Grey offer: $35k

If people knew these greys had 40% margins maybe they’d think twice instead of just thinking $35k is the going rate. I guess someone has to make the payments on the Ferraris and Lambos these guy ride around in.

I actually got low $30s

Grey offers were around 29.

Moved the cash to a new gold sub from AD.


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[grimps]

Originally Posted by Krash

There needs to be a catalyst or some sort of an event to trigger a collapse in the luxury watch market.

If the Dow Jones and S&P 500 drop 50% with no recovery in sight and there is indeed another pro-longed real estate collapse that triggers a global depression, then that could trigger a collapse in the luxury watch market.

We just went through a global pandemic and the global economy was literally shut down for a year, and that still wasn’t enough to cool down the luxury watch market.


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If you paid retail price for our Rolex and wear it for 5 years ten you'll never have to worry about any global crash or pandemic impacting the price of your watch , which is a good reason Rolex is a sensible thing to spend your spare money on

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Thank you for sharing.
It’s a cartel. 30% bid-offer is ridiculous on the hottest, most wanted Rolex in the world. Really no different than DeBeers.

Grey bid: $25k
Private party: $28k
Grey offer: $35k

If people knew these greys had 40% margins maybe they’d think twice instead of just thinking $35k is the going rate. I guess someone has to make the payments on the Ferraris and Lambos these guy ride around in.

Exactly..... greys are the problems.... getting all the AD stock, flipping then buying lambos.......such a shame

[mykii]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Thank you for sharing.
It’s a cartel. 30% bid-offer is ridiculous on the hottest, most wanted Rolex in the world. Really no different than DeBeers.

Grey bid: $25k
Private party: $28k
Grey offer: $35k

If people knew these greys had 40% margins maybe they’d think twice instead of just thinking $35k is the going rate. I guess someone has to make the payments on the Ferraris and Lambos these guy ride around in.

Can confirm 30-40% margins between bid and offer prices based on my experience dealing with them, typically no less than 30% frankly.

[mml4]

AD's don't display Rolex for the most part. Walk in and buy some jewelry for serious $ and you will get the watch you crave at msrp or if you're a steady customer less.

[Cambo]

Originally Posted by mykii

Can confirm 30-40% margins between bid and offer prices based on my experience dealing with them, typically no less than 30% frankly.

This really gets us back to the beginning point from the OP ,that David Khalil was getting calls from dealers asking him to remove his videos as they may have been affecting price (ergo the dealers' markup).

[boogiebot]

This problem can be fixed. The solution is that people just need to stop buying these items. As much as it pains me to say this, we allow this to happen. We all sit here and amP each other up about prices going up and then right essay size threads about the scarcity so that Google can keep picking this up on their algorithms to reinforce how hard it is to get these watches. The moment we all realize that we add to this BS that would be a breakthrough for everyone.

Sadly I don’t think this will happen as we all seem we content to keep fuelling this self made fire.


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