Is there a real crisis out there...?

[chenx15]

would you believe somebody was selling me a seadweller for 4000 canadian dollars it's year 2006. i just passed because i bought a daytona. just wondering if there will be an increase supply in the ss daytona and less demand is there a possibility that the TT daytona will actually have higher resale value? even a legitimate rolex online seller of previously loved rolex lowered their prices.

[Seaotter]

Originally Posted by GVmil

Seaotter,
is that a M8 you're shooting with in the pic?

After using a M8 for a week I decided to keep my M7, M6, and M3
I love 35 mm film (slide)


http://www.rhinefalls.com/ Schaffhausen Swiss




Bart / Seaotter

[Dylan Wade]

2nd hand watch shops here in Hong Kong are now bursting with watches, Rolex, AP's and even PP.

If you could find one, the new DSSD was going for HKG$80K (US$10.2K) only 8weeks ago and today there's more than a few kicking about at HK$65K (US$8.3K)

A great time to buy in the now "Cash is King" main street!

Question is, will they go lower?

[Tombstone]

Please don't buy a Rolex or any Swiss watch for a while. Things are going to become much worse. Chat on another web site advised that used Rolex are being bought for fifty cents on the dollar. If you sell your Rolex you will take a massive loss.

[rpryan55]

Originally Posted by builtforspeed

I've put down the Dostoevsky and re-read the entire Douglas Adams catalogue since this mess began.

I've decided that I can be miserable through this debacle, or I can wear a great watch and be try to be happy. Either way, it will turn out the same in the end.

Cheers,

Chris

Really the only sensible advice/commentary I've read on this whole mess.

[baldyspoon]

sorry but not seeing the credit crunch in london as deepsea is selling for £6000 on one watch site & £6450 on another so no signs here

[Spy]

Originally Posted by baldyspoon

sorry but not seeing the credit crunch in london as deepsea is selling for £6000 on one watch site & £6450 on another so no signs here

Also, the shopping centres (malls to my american friends ) are absolutely heaving at the weekends. I guess it is the run up to xmas though. It will be interesting to see how much people are spending in February, once the xmas and the January sales have abated.

[herfdude]

I called one of the AD's I regularly deal with last week about a DSSD. He has two in stock and he offered me one for $6475. I really like the watch so I'm still thinking about it..........

On this same subject, yesterday another AD I also deal with regularly called and offered me a new men's platinum MasterPiece model 18956 serial "M" with a baguette diamond bezel, and pave diamond dial, and full baguette bracelet: Rolex list: $275,000 Offered at 35% off: $179,950 (I think this one was ordered for a customer who backed out on the purchase)

Typically a watch like this can be held for a year or two in unworn condition and be sold for a fairly decent profit. I think keeping it in the "unworn" category would be the tough part........

[dweb]

Originally Posted by cody p

if it's true, as stated in another thread just started, that there's a total of four ss daytonas at a tourneau in san fran selling for msrp, then i'd say there's a problem.

I was at Tourneau in SF on 11/16 and they did not have any SS Daytonas. They have a few WGs.

[Eli]

You will never see an SS Daytona in a display case. No matter what, they will keep it in back. They may sell them to just about anyone who walks in, but they won't display it.


garanteed

[rolio]

We know things are tough out there. But, these things come and go in cycles, like the sun. What I've learned throughout the years is to reposition, make wise choices, financially, and you will become stronger in the long run. The interesting thing is that this recession is not a typical one; it has never been so bleak to include so many. So we don't truly know what's behind tomorrow's door. As for Rolex, I hope it will sustain itself through the unstable times that we are facing. What happened during the depression? How many companies still exist that were around to witness the carnage. It's not because I wear the watch, but because I admire any company that can withstand financial storms and come out strong in the end. My .02.

Ciao!

[082013]

Originally Posted by baldyspoon

sorry but not seeing the credit crunch in london as deepsea is selling for £6000 on one watch site & £6450 on another so no signs here

Selling or listed at?

[watchnut]

Originally Posted by rolio

We know things are tough out there. But, these things come and go in cycles, like the sun. What I've learned throughout the years is to reposition, make wise choices, financially, and you will become stronger in the long run. The interesting thing is that this recession is not a typical one; it has never been so bleak to include so many. So we don't truly know what's behind tomorrow's door. As for Rolex, I hope it will sustain itself through the unstable times that we are facing. What happened during the depression? How many companies still exist that were around to witness the carnage. It's not because I wear the watch, but because I admire any company that can withstand financial storms and come out strong in the end. My .02.

Ciao!

Exactly! This isn't a typical recession but as you say, if you plan ahead a bit you can survive. Many fortunes were made during, and because of, the great depression. You can't help but have compassion for the folks hurting thru no fault of their own but many have just been living in a fantasy land, way beyond their means. Interesting the other day to see one headline where Citi is laying off 53,000 and several lines later where the NY attorney general is begging their Execs to forego their bonuses! Seems like greed exists in any climate. I'm pretty sure Rolex won't be asking for any bailouts, though, and we'll still have TRF to sustain us. A lot of wisdom and friendship to be found on here!

[DJF881]

Originally Posted by GVmil

I'm not sure how things are in Paris, but in NYC I began to notice a change at the end of the summer. Usually if I need to grab a cab in the morning I need to be in front of my building by 7:15 AM otherwise they are all taken. Starting in the late summer I was constantly noticing empty cabs even well into rush hour.
Three weeks ago I was called by my AD about the GV, I had been number 4 on his list, the three guys ahead of me backed out. I was very happy to take advantage and pick it up, but the fact that it dropped to me so quickly was note worthy. This is only the second GV my AD has seen since release.
So do we have a crisis? Or are people who are over-leveraged just not buying?
Or are people less likely to buy a Rolex when they've seen their 401k drop by 30% or more?

On the other hand I took my wife to Tourneau on Saturday and they were full of shoppers. I saw a PAM get picked up, a Cartier Santos and a Breitling while I bought my wife a SS/WG TOG. I got a very nice discount though.
The Tourneau rep said that my GV was the first she'd seen this year.
So the evidence of a slow down is there, but other signs are less clear.
Cheers,
J

In NYC, the watch stores get cleaned out in bonus season. There is a lot of trepidation about lower bonuses this year.

NYC shopping was also boosted by foreign tourists taking advantage of extremely favorable exchange rates, and the dollar has strengthened against foreign currency.

The GV is also a favorite of watch flippers, so there may be a softening in demand for flipped GVs at above retail price, either because the watch is perceived as being more available, or because demand has fallen for it since it is no longer new.

Rolex is going to suffer because its most profitable watches, the gold ones, are going to be less popular not just because people can no longer afford them, but because it will be less socially appropriate for people who can afford them to wear them. A lot of people who might have bought a diamond-dial day date in 2006 will be looking for something more subtle this year.

Rolex may try to make up for slackening demand for its gold models by increasing availability of its steel models.

[baldyspoon]

Originally Posted by 082013

Selling or listed at?

Selling at rang them and no chance of a price drop as no trouble selling them at that price

[DJF881]

Originally Posted by watchnut

Exactly! This isn't a typical recession but as you say, if you plan ahead a bit you can survive. Many fortunes were made during, and because of, the great depression. You can't help but have compassion for the folks hurting thru no fault of their own but many have just been living in a fantasy land, way beyond their means. Interesting the other day to see one headline where Citi is laying off 53,000 and several lines later where the NY attorney general is begging their Execs to forego their bonuses! Seems like greed exists in any climate. I'm pretty sure Rolex won't be asking for any bailouts, though, and we'll still have TRF to sustain us. A lot of wisdom and friendship to be found on here!

If a company slashes compensation in response to difficult economic conditions, then its talent can be cherry-picked by competitors who can offer better comp. Citi can live without the 53,000. If Citi failed to offer competitive compensation to its performers, it would lose everyone who could get a higher paying job elsewhere, and it would never survive that.

Also, "bonus" isn't really a bonus in New York the financial industry. It's an expected part of comp. So no bonus would be something like a 50%-70% cut in pay for guys who work a hundred hours a week because they expect to make a lot of money. They'd be pissed, and they'd be gone.

Top execs at all firms will take comp cuts voluntarily this year as a display of contrition or magnanimity or whatever. But they will fight tooth and nail to preserve comp down the line, because they can't afford to get raided.

[f16570]

Things are slowing down all over. We will just have to ride it through.

[Rob_b]

Originally Posted by joeskie

You will never see an SS Daytona in a display case. No matter what, they will keep it in back. They may sell them to just about anyone who walks in, but they won't display it.


garanteed

Thats what I thought

Until I saw a black dial SS DAYTONA in the display case at the AD in Brisbane, never seen that happen before. Didn't last long, but it was out for all to see. Weak $AU ensures it would be real expensive. I am always agog at the cheap prices of SS DAYTONA in the USA.

That is the only SS DAYTONA I have seen with my own eyes

Rob.

[ldmarcht]

Other luxury markets are being affected as well, for example Porsche is seeing a 40% drop in sales and is making a huge effort to reach out to recent buyers with new web advertising, presents in the mail and so forth....

Does anyone have specific sales figures for Rolex?

[RsqVet]

I would hate to be a NYC watch / pen / car or other "toy" dealer this year. Even if an individual comes through without too much of a hit to what they make or their bonus, ONLY a fool would not pack a considerable amount of it away "just in case"

Also I suspect this crisis will spur a change in thinking, no more endless profits and huge bonus payments esp. in face of bad choices and failure.

[GVmil]

Originally Posted by Seaotter

After using a M8 for a week I decided to keep my M7, M6, and M3
I love 35 mm film (slide)

Attachment 44859
http://www.rhinefalls.com/ Schaffhausen Swiss

Attachment 44860


Bart / Seaotter

I'm PMing you
Cheers
J

[dcmachead]

I think people are getting overly pessimistic right now. Just look at commodity price drops--gold, copper, aluminum, steel, iron ore, etc. are all getting POUNDED pricewise. Look at stuff like crude, gasoline (down from $4/gallon in the U.S. to $2/gallon in the span of 5 months).

Let's just take gasoline as an example. Joe sixpack fills up his 15 gallon tank once a week over 52 weeks and saves $2.00/gallon--that works out to over $1,500 extra per year per person that drives. I think that makes for a hell of a stimulus that's underappreciated amidst all the gloom and doom.

There's going to be a point at which the rapid declines in the metals will positively impact the economy, as well. With food costs, you're going to see that come down once contracts roll off--my local grocer put up a sign saying that they're lowering prices due to lower fuel prices and expect lower prices on baked goods as commodity contracts roll off in the coming months.

The prices on things that everyone was whining about a few months ago are collapsing. Unfortunately, there were quite a few fiefdoms built on high commodity prices that are in the process of imploding and the broad economy is suffering the effects of deleveraging. If this were a baseball game, I think we're in the 7th inning or maybe the early 8th.

The world doesn't come to an end that often, people!

[Weenis]

Who cares enjoy your watch/es

[Jimbits76]

Are folks with a decent bit of liquid cash now going to snap up all the Daytonas that won't sell.

Surely at some point the market will bounce and premiums (not to mention annual Rolex forced price inflation) will rise.

At mrsp could they be considered decent investments?

J

[teo]

Originally Posted by Jimbits76

Are folks with a decent bit of liquid cash now going to snap up all the Daytonas that won't sell.

Surely at some point the market will bounce and premiums (not to mention annual Rolex forced price inflation) will rise.

At mrsp could they be considered decent investments?

J

Yes very agree. Just look at the old manual winding daytona they can be found everywhere and discount in the old days.